There are conspiracy theories flying around about nuclear material being moved from the Iranian facility at Fordow prior to the United States missile strikes. Do we know this to be true? Absolutely not. No matter how much media speculation there is, we simply don’t have the intel.
Here is what we have seen, and this is what signals there is more going on than it appears. There have been a plethora of warnings about bombing over the past 48 hours. Iran gave America notice of firing missiles at our base in Qatar, and subsequently gave notice to Israel as well. Likewise, Israel just gave Iran a heads up that they will be firing missiles back at them.
Quite frankly, we can say this is the most cordial war we have seen. If you recall the Iraq War’s “Shock and Awe,” the warning was SHOCK AND AWE – tanks, missiles, troops on the ground. This conflict is nothing like that. Although the posturing was there – battleships moved into the area, troops on social media being fed steak and lobster – all signs pointed to this being a full-out war.
However, it reminds me of a phrase straight out of Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War”: “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive.”
The Theater of Modern Warfare
What we’re witnessing appears to be warfare as theater – carefully choreographed strikes designed more for domestic and international audiences than for actual military devastation. Both sides are demonstrating their capabilities while providing enough advance warning to minimize casualties and escalation.
This raises several critical questions: Is Trump orchestrating this careful dance from behind the scenes? The timing seems too convenient – just as his administration begins, we see this remarkably restrained exchange of fire between two nations that have been at each other’s throats for decades.
The Negotiation Strategy
Trump’s approach has always been unconventional. Could this controlled escalation be his way of forcing all parties to the table? By allowing both Israel and Iran to save face through these limited strikes, he may be creating the conditions for meaningful negotiations that neither side could initiate without appearing weak to their domestic audiences.
The pattern suggests coordination at the highest levels – something that would require significant diplomatic groundwork, likely involving multiple back-channel communications that the public isn’t privy to.
